Agenda and Workshop Presentations

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NEHRP WORKSHOP:
DEVELOPING EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

September 17 and 18, 2008

Sir Francis Drake Hotel, 450 Powell St.
San Francisco, CA

AGENDA

Wednesday, September 17

8:00 am Purpose and Introduction to Project (Ivan Wong)

8:30 am Session 1: Major Lessons from Past & Ongoing Scenario Efforts (5 min overview of scenario; positive/negative lessons; partnerships used; resulting changes in risk reduction)
8:30 a.m. Scenario of Repeat of 1906 earthquake (Rich Eisner)
8:55 a.m. Seattle Fault scenario (Mark Stewart)
9:20 a.m. Southern California ShakeOut (Dale Cox)
9:50 a.m. The Oregon Experience—Changing Awareness, Policy & Legislation (Yumei Wang)

10:40 am Session 2: Major Lessons from Past/Ongoing Scenario Efforts
10:40 a.m. Small Community in Oregon (Tom Manning)
11:05 a.m. Catastrophic Scenario planning in the Midwest (Bob Bauer)
11:30 a.m. Wasatch Front scenarios (Bob Carey)
11:55 a.m. Development of Community Scenarios (Mark Shorett)

1:30 pm Session 3: Designing an Effective Scenario Process—Implementing the Scenario
Part A: Break into 4 small groups (see group assignments) to discuss the Cypress purpose of scenario planning, what is it that the scenario should accomplish,
what is required in order to best implement a scenario

3:00 pm Part B: Reconvene in plenary session—each group reports back, group
discussion (including recommendations that could be included in guidelines
and/or in web resource)

4:05 pm Session 4: Launching the Scenario
Part A: Break into 4 small groups (see group assignments) to discuss what is involved in launching a scenario

5:10 pm Part B: Reconvene in plenary session—each group reports back, group
discussion (including recommendations that could be included in guidelines
and/or in web resource)

Thursday, September 18

8:30 am Session 5: Useful Tools for Scenario Planning
8:30 a.m.Earthquake Scenario Simulation using CISN Display (Dave Oppenheimer)
8:55 a.m. U.S.G.S. ShakeMap and Related Real-Time Tools (David Wald)
9:20 a.m. Overview of HAZUS–using default data, user groups (Hope Seligson)

10:00 am Session 6: Organizing the Scenario
Part A: Break into 4 small groups (see group assignments) to discuss
organizing the planning effort (schedule, workgroups, leadership,
management, funding)

11:05 am Part B: Reconvene in plenary session—each group reports back, group
discussion (including recommendations that could be included in guidelines
and/or in web resource)

1:00 pm Session 7: Constructing the Scenario
Part A: Break into 4 small groups (see group assignments) to discuss
components of the scenario (earthquake event, estimating damage and
impacts, response and recovery, beyond the earthquake, what tools to use)

2:05 pm Part B: Reconvene in plenary session—each group reports back, group
discussion (including recommendations that could be included in guidelines
and/or in web resource)

3:15 pm Session 8: Strategies for Presenting the Scenario
Plenary discussion. How to ensure that a scenario is effective & reaches its
intended audience (summary presentation, Ivan Wong)

4:00 pm Session 9: Wrap-up Plenary Session—Brainstorming on Communications
Strategy and Next Steps