Construct & Iterate

  • Need to build from a credible event
    The scenario that is chosen needs to be credible to local audiences–a smaller, more plausible earthquake as the basis for a scenario is often more credible than a catastrophic event.
  • Consider initial investment in building inventory
    Building inventory data can be expensive and time-consuming for a community to collect, but once collected it can be used in all future scenarios. An initial investment in collecting such valuable data can reduce future costs associated with scenarios and planning exercises.
  • Identify data available, needed data improvements
    Involve experts and stakeholders in identifying what data are available at the community level. Any one agency is unlikely to have all the experts needed. A consistent depth of information is needed.
  • Estimate damage and impacts
    Request state agencies to make estimates of damage based on expected ground motions. Involve stakeholders in estimating impacts from their perspectives. It is important to decide on the scale and scope for these estimates.
  • Determine impact on response and recovery
    Different stakeholder groups may be involved in these estimates. The scenario can start to focus attention on needs that lead to pre-packaged mission requests to state and federal response agencies. Response is better understood than recovery, which will likely include effects on housing, jobs, transportation networks, schools, hospitals, etc. The interrelationship of such community characteristics should be acknowledged.
  • Build in process for vetting and review
    Need to address divergent opinions during development and review. The vetting process should take place before the scenario is shared widely, so that any scientific and engineering disagreements can be resolved beforehand.
  • Focus on resilience
    Focus attention on a community’s or organization’s ability to survive and prosper–what economic strategies might be needed (and what is existing economic situation)? It is possible a community or organization may have a net “gain” from an earthquake in terms of receiving funding assistance.
  • Include a Call to Action
    Develop specific recommendations for change that can be implemented, that form the basis for new policy. Keep such recommendations simple and practicable.